When two champions collide, the stakes skyrocket—and so does the excitement for fight fans. At UFC 322, lightweight king Islam Makhachev (27-1 MMA, 16-1 UFC) moves up in weight to challenge Jack Della Maddalena (18-2 MMA, 8-0 UFC) for the welterweight crown at Madison Square Garden.
But while Della Maddalena owns the 170-pound belt, the betting odds tell a different story.
The Odds: Makhachev Favored Despite Size Difference
Makhachev opens as a -210 favorite, while Della Maddalena sits as the +185 underdog. In betting terms, this means oddsmakers see Makhachev—the smaller man on fight night—as the likelier fighter to win despite moving up a weight class.
Why? Makhachev’s dominance at lightweight has been undeniable. Since claiming the title at UFC 280 with a submission win over Charles Oliveira, he has turned back elite opponents like Alexander Volkanovski (twice), Dustin Poirier, and Renato Moicano. His grappling-heavy style, combined with improved striking, has made him one of the most complete fighters in the UFC today.
Della Maddalena: The Dangerous Underdog
On the other side, Della Maddalena brings power, precision, and an unblemished UFC record. The Australian star captured the welterweight belt by defeating Belal Muhammad in a hard-fought decision at UFC 315. Known for his crisp boxing and knockout ability, Della Maddalena thrives on punishing opponents who take risks.
At +225, bettors who believe in the champ’s size and striking advantage could see solid returns if he pulls off the upset.
What the Odds Really Mean
- Makhachev (-210): reflects his dominance and proven championship pedigree.
- Della Maddalena (+185): suggests the oddsmakers expect Makhachev to control the fight, but acknowledge Della Maddalena’s knockout threat.
With two champions colliding, the odds lean heavily toward skill and experience over size and power.
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